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© Copyright 2001, Jim Loy
Three card monte is a little gambling scam that you may see on the streets of a city. A man (could be a woman, of course) has a small table and three cards which are bent lengthwise to make them easier for him to handle. He shows you one of the cards, let's say that it is the ace of spades. He then mixes the cards with a few deft, rapid moves and then asks you to bet on which card you think is the ace of spades. If you are right, you win the amount of your bet, doubling your money. It's not a good bet (1/3), unless you can visually follow the ace of spades. Can you?
As you watch, you will see that it seems easy to follow the ace of spades. And you will see that some people are winning and some are losing. It seems honest. But it is not. The person who operates this scam has a clever, almost undetectable move that essentially switches two of the cards. This is usually done right at the beginning of his deft moves, sometimes right at the end. He has switched two cards, and you are following the wrong card. Sometimes he does not switch cards, in order to convince you that you can follow the ace of spades.
But some people are winning, are they just lucky? No, usually they are shills, people who are in on the scam, and are there just to get you to bet. They know which card to bet on (sometimes they win, sometimes they lose), because the person running the scam has signalled them.
So the odds are 1/3 of winning (if you guess at random), or 1/2 (if you correctly assume that two cards were switched), or maybe even a 1/1 certainty (if you can see the switching of cards). You can win this "game." No, probably not. If you try to bet on the correct card, you may not even be allowed to bet. He may not like the size of your bet, or the color of your money. Other people who are betting on the wrong card should see that as proof that it is a crooked game, and leave, but they don't. And to keep you from winning, he may even close up shop because the cops are coming.
This scam is similar to the shell game, with three walnut shells and a pea under one of them. One chance in three? Nope, you can never find the pea, because the pea is under none of the shells. The scammer has palmed the pea, and he can then put it under whichever shell he wants to. You choose one shell, and he shows you that it was under a different shell, every time.
In three card monte, or similar scams, you will often be invited to cheat the scammer. A spectator will bend the corner of the correct card, and you can't lose. Well, you will lose, big time. The spectator is a partner of the scammer, and the bent card miraculously is not the correct card. And you lose. And you tried to cheat. Are you going to call the police or testify in court? No way. By the way, the spectator usually bends the wrong card.
I am informed that there are moves which switch the positions of all three cards. In fact, the cards can end up in any order after the first move.